Daily Market Outlook, May 13, 2024

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

“Markets Await Powell Speech Ahead Of Pivotal US Inflation Prints”

Equity markets in the Far East experienced mixed performance, highlighted by strong gains in Hong Kong and Mainland China indices, which were counteracted by losses in Japanese and Australian stocks. The surge in Chinese stocks occurred despite US President Biden's weekend announcement of quadrupling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Additionally, weekend data from China revealed a decline in credit in April, indicating weakened economic demand. There is a cautious sense of optimism about China's economy, but this may be put to the test by the release of monthly activity data for April on Friday. It is anticipated that there may be a slight improvement in industrial output, retail sales, and urban investment, following last month's lower-than-expected figures. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, while house prices are likely to continue their weak trend after a significant drop in March. Additionally, April credit data may also be made available this week.Despite sluggish loans and credit data, the People's Bank of China is expected to maintain the one-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.50% on Wednesday, as it continues to prioritize currency stability.

The upcoming light data schedule in Japan will be headlined by the release of preliminary GDP on Thursday, with the market's attention focused on the Bank of Japan.

Europe is expected to have a relatively quiet week, with only the EZ ZEW economic sentiment, flash GDP, and industrial production being the notable data releases. Similarly, the UK will also have a quiet week with only jobs data and a presentation by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill on Tuesday, which may provide valuable insights following the expected dovish hold by the BOE. Optimism regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England received a further boost from this week's monetary policy update. A second policymaker voted for a rate cut in a 7-to-2 split, while the Monetary Policy Committee's forward guidance was more dovish than previously. Governor Bailey mentioned that a rate cut in June was "not ruled out or planned," a remark that markets deemed significant. Market expectations of a rate cut in either June or August were already increasing before the update, but they escalated further afterward. The probability of a June move now stands close to 60%, with a reduction by August fully anticipated. However, for the year overall, markets still assign less than a 50% probability to a third rate reduction. Governor Bailey emphasized that there will be two full monthly datasets between now and June to inform policymakers' views, with a particular focus on inflation and labor market data. The latest jobs market report will offer further insights into a potentially loosening labor market. Employment in the three months to March is projected to have decreased by 250k, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Of utmost importance to the Bank of England is the forecasted slowdown in annual regular pay growth to 5.9% from 6.0%, continuing its decline from the recent peak close to 8%. However, it's worth noting that this data will not yet reflect the impact of the April increases in the National Living Wage and the National Minimum Wage. Policymakers are likely to view this as another indication of easing inflation pressures but may also feel that further progress is necessary to achieve their 2% inflation target sustainably. Moreover, they will need to assess whether the labor market will continue to weaken if economic activity continues to recover.

The upcoming U.S. data schedule is packed, with key releases including core PPI, core CPI, and retail sales. Additionally, the week will feature the release of weekly job data, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production on Thursday, offering a comprehensive view of the economy. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, starting with Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and concluding with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Thursday.

In terms of today's economic agenda, there are no notable releases. Fed members Mester and Jefferson are scheduled to speak this afternoon to discuss central bank communication.

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

  • Cooling US Core Inflation Set To Offer Minimal Relief To The Fed

  • Biden’s China Tariffs Salvo Ranges From Doubling To Quadruple

  • China To Start $138 Billion Special Sovereign Bonds Sale Friday

  • China Consumer Inflation Rises, Factory Price Drop Continues

  • BoJ Cuts JGB Purchase Amount In Hawkish Signal To Markets

  • Australian Inflation May Hit RBA Target In 2024, Treasury Says

  • Israel Defy Censure, Orders More Palestinians To Evacuate Rafah

  • Sunak To Declare UK ‘At Crossroads’, Readies Tories For Election

  • UK Employers Plan 4% Pay Rises In Coming Year, Survey Shows

  • Socialists Win Catalan Election But Region Heads For Stalemate

  • Pres Putin Shakes Up Defense, Security Blocks As Army Advances

  • Iraq Oil Minister Says Extending Output Cuts Is Decision For OPEC

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

  • EUR/USD: 1.0650 (2.8BLN), 1.0675 (684M), 1.0745-55 (5.5BLN)

  • 1.0780-00 (725M), 1.0815 (630M)

  • USD/CHF: 0.9090 (430M), 0.9100 (400M), 0.9105 (947M)

  • GBP/USD: 1.2370 (715M), 1.2530-35 (870M), 1.2550 (476M)

  • 1.2565-70 (847M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8540 (230M), 0.8560 (390M)

  • AUD/USD: 0.6500 (759M), 0.6525-30 (1.2BLN), 0.6580-85 (350M)

  • 0.6600 (426M), 0.6620-30 (318M), 0.6640-45 (360M)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5690 (760M). AUD/NZD: 1.0950-60 (635M)

  • USD/CAD 1.3550-55 (424M), 1.3650-60 (450M), 1.3665-70 (570M)

  • USD/JPY: 155.00-15 (2.6BLN), 155.25 (501M), 156.30 (376M)

  • 156.50-55 (940M)

  • USD/ZAR: 18.70 (710). EUR/SEK: 11.52-55 (803M)

CFTC Data As Of 10/05/24

  • British pound net short position is -21,813 contracts

  • Euro net long position is 4,590 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -134,922

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -41,787

  • Bitcoin net short position is -783 contracts

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 69,524 contracts to 238,456

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 cme net long position by 44.751 contracts to 860,694

  • Gold NC Net Positions: $199.6K vs previous $204.2K

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5200

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Below 5190 opens 5156

  • Primary support 4987

  • Primary objective is 5258

EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.0720

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bearish

  • Above 1.0730 opens 1.0843

  • Primary resistance 1.850

  • Primary objective is 1.0550

GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.2450

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bearish

  • Above 1.2590 opens 1.2640

  • Primary resistance  is 1.2710

  • Primary objective 1.26

USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 152

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Below 154.40 opens 152

  • Primary support 152

  • Primary objective is 165

XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2376

  • Daily VWAP bullish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Above 2376 opens 2425

  • Primary support 2260

  • Primary objective is 2560

BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish below 63000

  • Daily VWAP bearish

  • Weekly VWAP bullish

  • Below 57500 opens 55900

  • Primary resistance is 63000

  • Primary objective is 53877