Gold Reverses
Gold prices have come under fresh selling pressure today with the futures market heavily in the red. The reversal lower come son the back of a strong up-move yesterday and has been linked to profit taking following the recent rally as price tests the November highs. A slightly firmer USD today is n doubt helping cap the topside move here also as traders await the next key US data inputs tomorrow. The ADP jobs print holds the potential to drive fresh market volatility as traders look to the number to act as a signal ahead of the upcoming FOMC.
ADP Jobs On Watch
With the October and November NFP sets being delayed until after the FOMC, this month’s ADP release will take on even higher importance. If a drop in jobs is confirmed, as expected, gold prices should rally as USD sinks on cemented December rate cut expectations. The market is currently pricing a roughly 90% chance of a cut. Obviously with dovish expectations well baked in here, there is a risk that an upside surprise tomorrow spooks doves, sending USD higher and gold prices lower. As such, plenty of volatility risk to monitor into tomorrow’s data.
Fed Chair Announcement
We might also hear from Trump today or tomorrow on his new Fed chair pick. If Kevin Hassett is announced, as expected, this should be positive for gold with Hassett a well-known dove and seen as likely to bow to Trump’s pressure to ease rates more consistently.
Technical Views
Gold
The bullish triangle break has stalled for now into a test of the November highs around the 4,247.34 level. Focus now will be on whether the bullish triangle support line holds, if retested, to maintain the bullish focus on a return to 4,383.16 highs. To the downside, 3,908.90 is the big support level to watch.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.