USDJPY Intervention Risks Back in Spotlight
Yen Under Pressure
USDJPY is on watch today after warnings from Japanese authorities overnight as the pair returned to the 160 level. The BOJ previously intervened around this level at the end of April, sparking an almost 4% rally in JPY. Since then, however, hawkish Fed expectations and rising uncertainty around the US/Iran peace process has seen USD pushing higher again and JPY falling from favour. Ove the last week, a series of tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran, as well as Iran attacking the UAE, has sparked fears that the ceasefire is at risk of collapsing.
Crude Jumps
These moves have fuelled a rebound in oil prices with crude futures up over 8% this week. For JPY this has a firmly negative effect given Japan’s reliance on imported oil. Consequently, if crude continues to push higher there is a high likelihood that we see fresh intervention to help stabilise the Yen.
Hawkish Fed Expectations
The picture is further complicated by hawkish Fed expectations, also linked to elevated oil prices. The Fed is now widely expected to hike rates by year end and the longer the standoff between the US and Iran continues, the more entrenched this expectation becomes.
Bullish Risks
With USD rising again in line with oil prices, there is growing pressure on Japanese authorities to sell dollars and stabilise the exchange rate. However, without a shift in the geopolitical backdrop it seems unlikely they will be able to achieve anything more than a shorter reaction. As such, clear volatility risks ahead but USDJPY looks skewed towards further upside unless we get a breakthrough in peace talks and a deal is announced.
Technical Views
USDJPY
For now, USDJPY sits just below the YTD highs, supported by the rising channel and firmly above the 157.85 level. While above here, focus is on a continuation higher with 161.95 the next bull target and the bull channel highs above that.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.