SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 4/7/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~50 POINTS***
WEEKLY ACTION AREA & PRICE TARGET VIDEO - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGai0yB4XYE&t=218s
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6220/10
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6295 SUP 6150
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6260/50
DAILY RANGE RES 6383 SUP 6264
2 SIGMA RES 6442 SUP 6205
GAP LEVELS 6274?6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX BULL JULY CONTRACT BEAR ZONE 21.35 DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 18.25
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP - 6270
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: JULY 3RD RALLY
FICC and Equities | July 3, 2025 | 5:22 PM UTC
"Freedom lies in being bold." — Robert Frost
Market Summary:
- S&P 500: +83bps, closing at 6,279 (new all-time high).
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): +99bps, closing at 22,866 (new all-time high).
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +92bps, closing at 2,244.
- Dow Jones: +77bps, closing at 44,828.
- Trading Volume: 11.3 billion shares traded across all U.S. equity exchanges.
- VIX: -173bps, closing at 16.35.
- Crude Oil: +92bps, closing at $66.83.
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: +6bps, closing at 4.34%.
- Gold: -46bps, closing at $3,344.
- DXY (Dollar Index): +38bps, closing at 97.14.
- Bitcoin: +25bps, closing at $109,491.
Key Drivers:
Stocks surged higher today, continuing the July 3rd rally tradition, buoyed by a better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report:
- Headline NFP: +147k MoM (vs. consensus +106k).
- Average Hourly Earnings (AHE): +22bps (vs. +30bps expected).
- Unemployment Rate (U/E): 4.12% unrounded (vs. 4.3% expected).
However, the underlying details of the report were slightly softer than the headline suggests. Federal employment contributed +73k to the total, which tempered fears after a weaker ADP report yesterday. The household survey remained strong, and the data likely removes the possibility of July rate cuts.
Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 reached new all-time highs today, with broad participation across sectors. The market saw an "everything rally," featuring both higher-quality names and riskier segments:
- Software and Momentum Winners: +2-3%.
- Most Short and Non-Profitable Tech: +1-3%.
Market Activity:
Overall activity levels were subdued, rated a "2" on a 1-10 scale.
- Floor Performance: Finished -300bps for sale vs. a 30-day average of -63bps.
- Client Activity: Muted ahead of the long weekend.
- Asset Managers: Small net buyers, with demand in discretionary sectors offset by supply in macro products.
- Hedge Funds (HFs): Small net sellers, with sell tickets spread across industrials, financials, and tech. HF VIP longs underperformed Most Short (GSPRHVMS) by -54bps.
Sector Insights:
From Mike Cahill: Government education was a standout positive category, likely due to seasonal distortions. Layoffs in June were smaller than usual, which could explain the stronger-than-expected NFP numbers. Seasonal factors typically expect large layoffs in June and hiring in September.
Looking Ahead:
Who’s left to buy at these levels? CTA flows could provide additional support, with $95 billion in potential buying across global equities if the 1-month flat tape holds steady.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!