SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 24/6/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~50 POINTS***
WEEKLY ACTION AREA & PRICE TARGET VIDEO - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2SyD93SwpQ
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6050/60
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6130 SUP 5900
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6070/60
DAILY RANGE RES 6136 SUP 6018
2 SIGMA RES 6196 SUP 5958
GAP LEVELS 5843/5741/5710
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 20.50
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE - 6109/5993
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE RANGE SUP
LONG ON TEST REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: CLEARING EVENT
FICC and Equities | June 23, 2025 | 9:46 PM UTC
Market Performance
- S&P 500: +96bps, closing at 6,025 with MOC buy orders of $110m.
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): +106bps, closing at 21,856.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +116bps, closing at 2,149.
- Dow Jones: +89bps, closing at 42,581.
- Volume: 18.4bn shares traded across U.S. equity exchanges vs. YTD daily average of 16.7bn shares.
- VIX: -3.8%, closing at 19.83.
- Crude Oil: -8.5%, closing at $68.51.
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: -3bps, now at 4.35%.
- Gold: +27bps, closing at $3,395.
- DXY (Dollar Index): -33bps, closing at 98.37.
- Bitcoin: -6bps, closing at $103,739.
Key Drivers
- Market activity reflects geopolitical developments, with Iran’s counterattack deemed benign, minimizing broader fallout.
- Trading leaned offensive, driven by falling oil prices and dovish Fed commentary. Fed’s Bowen suggested potential July rate cuts if inflation remains subdued, boosting equities.
- Energy sector declined (-2.5%), led by heavily shorted names (-4%). Crude oil dropped ~8% as Iranian supply remained undisrupted, with Brent expected to fall to $60/bbl by Q4.
- Hedge funds (HFs) are now overweight Energy stocks relative to the Russell 3000 for the first time in over five years, driven by recent net buying.
Desk Activity
- Activity level: 4/10.
- Desk performance: +215bps vs. 30-day average of -85bps.
- Long-only (LO) investors were slight net sellers, with supply in Energy and Communication Services, and demand in Staples and select Tech.
- Hedge funds were slight net buyers, driven by macro products but offset by Energy shorts.
- S&P rebalance last Friday served as a liquidity event, with expectations for higher velocity during this Friday’s Russell Rebalance.
Hedge Fund Positioning
- Fundamental Long/Short HF Gross Exposure: 206% (94th percentile, 1-year lookback).
- Net Exposure: 50% (14th percentile, 1-year lookback).
- Pain trade bias remains higher.
Single Stock Highlights
- Tesla (TSLA): Contributed ~25bps to NDX’s gain, rising 8% despite expected Robotaxi launch. Explosive volumes and options activity suggest aggressive retail beta chasing.
- FedEx (FDX): Earnings in focus tomorrow. Stock near highs vs. UPS but lows vs. broader transports/industrials. Hearing $5.60-$5.70 for Q4 and $18-$20 for FY2026, ~3% below consensus midpoint. Weak quarter expected due to global trade/tariffs, but DRIVE improvements could support outlook.
Derivatives
- Skew bid higher post-Iran headlines; volatility saw light selling.
- Index: 1x2 put spreads attractive for hedging against geopolitical risks.
- Retail names like TSLA and CRCL saw significant moves higher. For those fading retail mania, ARKK 27-Jun 67/62 put spreads look appealing.
- Short-dated volatility in Estée Lauder (EL) is attractive; July 80 calls cost <$3 (38v), notable for a stock up 55% in two months.
- Large NVDA call overwriting (83k Jul 165 calls sold). NVDA volatility looks attractive for stock replacement strategies. Weekly straddle pricing suggests a 1.29% move, factoring in Powell’s Congressional testimony and PCE data.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!