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SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 22/9/25
***QUOTING ES1 CONTRACT FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~60 POINTS***
***WEEKLY ACTION AREA VIDEO TO FOLLOW AHEAD OF NY OPEN***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6600/6590
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6734 SUP 6595
SEP EOM STRADDLE 178 POINTS - 6282/6638
OCT MOPEX 6842/6487
DEC QOPEX 6303/7025
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6683
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6587
DAILY BALANCE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER -6687
WEEKLY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6611
MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING UP - 6239
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement..
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
Weekend Cross-Asset Dislocations
Research | Options |
Factors that may cause an increase in index volatility:
1. October is historically the most volatile month of the year.
2. There has been a rise in activity among retail, professional, and options investors in recent weeks.
3. Fundamental volatility is high, as earnings-day movements for the S&P 500 reached a peak last quarter.
4. There is high global macro policy uncertainty.
5. A low free cash flow yield indicates the S&P's susceptibility to an economic downturn.
Factors that may keep index volatility subdued:
1. The rapid growth of ETFs and mutual funds trading index options exerts consistent pressure on both implied and realized volatility.
2. Bullish market conditions generally lead to lower volatility.
3. Our positioning indicators indicate there's potential for increased bullish positioning.
4. Policymakers may support markets through swift easing, despite ongoing long-term concerns.
5. The macroeconomic catalyst stream appears to be light for the coming month.
Options trading volumes have reached a three-year high.
While index volatility is low, both retail and hedge fund investors have shown considerable activity in single stock options following recent tech announcements. Stocks that are popular among retail investors have seen significant gains. Increased activity in single stock options often prompts hedge funds to lower their short positions due to concerns about gamma squeezes. To stay proactive, consider subscribing to a Retail/Options Short-Squeeze Manager tailored to your portfolio.
Retail investment in stocks has picked up pace. Over the last seven weeks, individual investors have consistently purchased shares in S&P 500 and NDX single stocks. We view this trend as a favorable factor for future performance rather than a cause for caution regarding stock investments.
Retail investors are maintaining their purchases of ETFs. The significant inflows recorded this week indicate increased quarterly investments in equity ETFs. Although we anticipate some fluctuations in flows in the coming week, we view this as a positive short-term indication for equities.
The VIX is currently low, yet some individuals are getting ready for potential market fluctuations. The VVIX indicates the volatility of VIX options. An increase in the VVIX implies that investors are growing more concerned about the potential for significant movements in the VIX, whether upwards or downwards.
SPX daily expected movements: Payrolls
Investors seem particularly attentive to the Payrolls report scheduled for early October. Those anticipating volatility this week may notice that options prices are exceptionally appealing. Typically, the anticipated movements in upcoming weeks tend to be marginally greater since the future carries more uncertainty than the present.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!