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SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 10/9/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~10 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6440/50
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6556 SUP 6407
SEP MOPEX STRADDLE - 6260/6639
SEP EOM STRADDLE - 6282/6638
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6500/10
DAILY RANGE RES 6588 SUP 6471
2 SIGMA RES 6650 SUP 6410
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 16.5
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - BALANCE 6541/6452
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: TECH SECTOR LEADS
FICC and Equities | 9 September 2025 |
The S&P 500 closed up +27bps at 6,512, marking another record high, supported by strength in tech and momentum stocks. Market-on-close (MOC) flows showed $1.9 billion to buy. Other major indices performed as follows: Nasdaq 100 (NDX) gained +33bps to close at 23,839, Russell 2000 (R2K) dropped -83bps to 2,378, while the Dow advanced +43bps to 45,711. Total trading volume reached 15.8 billion shares across U.S. equity exchanges, slightly below the year-to-date daily average of 16.8 billion shares.
Key market indicators:
- VIX declined -46bps to 15.04.
- WTI crude oil rose +71bps to $62.70.
- U.S. 10-year yield increased +4bps to 4.08%.
- Gold fell -26bps to $3,667.
- DXY strengthened +32bps to 97.76.
- Bitcoin dropped -60bps to $111,501.
Tech sector momentum remains strong, as evidenced by the S&P's record close, with Equal Weight underperforming by approximately -60bps. Our Communacopia conference in San Francisco continues to highlight the sector's dominance.
After Hours Highlights:
- Oracle (ORCL) surged +22% following a solid quarter. The stock rallied on news of four multi-billion-dollar contracts signed with three clients in FQ1, driving Cloud Infrastructure revenue growth of +77% forecasted for FY26.
- Insights from TMT trader Peter Bartlett: Corporate and investor optimism around AI remains exceptionally high. Presentations at the conference overwhelmingly focused on AI, emphasizing its “healthy and expanding” end-market, sustained CapEX investments, and innovations in software and hardware. While NVIDIA (NVDA) didn’t deliver groundbreaking updates, its comments on strong demand from hyperscalers and non-traditional players, including sovereign entities, reinforced the ongoing AI growth narrative.
Labor Market Insights:
Today’s BLS revisions indicated a -911k downward adjustment to payroll growth between April 2024 and March 2025. However, these revisions are historical and do not alter the current labor market outlook. While household survey data, such as the unemployment rate, remains unaffected, we maintain our view that the labor market has softened significantly (GIR).
Trading Floor Activity:
Activity levels on the floor rated a 7 on a scale of 1-10. MOC flows ended +311bps to buy, compared to the 30-day average of -43bps. Long-only investors (LOs) were net buyers by +$1.5 billion, concentrated in healthcare, tech, and financials, with minor supply in utilities. Hedge funds (HFs) were small net sellers across most sectors, excluding discretionary.
Derivatives Update:
Customer flows were subdued as investors await inflation data later this week. Post-open, we observed clients adding SPY hedges. Intraday trading ranges remained tight due to dealer gamma positioning, which we estimate is currently very long (8 out of 10). The desk continues to see value in owning topside volatility in SPX and NDX as a strategy to capitalize on potential breakouts or to rent delta. The straddle for the week settled at approximately 0.85%
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!