SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 10/6/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
WEEKLY ACTION AREA & PRICE TARGET VIDEO - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soMdGyfVSpE&t=9s
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 5940/50
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6098 SUP 5914
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 5980/90
DAILY RANGE RES 6071 SUP 5952
2 SIGMA RES 6131 SUP 5892
GAP LEVELS 5843/5741/5710
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 18.50
DAILY MARKET CONDITION -ONE TIME FRAMING UP - 6000
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
(QUOTING FRONT MONTH EMINI SP500 FUTURES CONTRACT PRICES, FOR EQUIVALENT US500 LEVELS SUBTRACT CIRCA 1 POINT)
TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT OF DAILY/WEEKLY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: MARKET SNAPSHOT
FICC and Equities | 9 June 2025 | 9:13 PM UTC
Market Performance:
- S&P 500: +9bps, closing at 6,005 with $4B MOC to BUY.
- NASDAQ 100 (NDX): +17bps, closing at 21,797.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +70bps, closing at 2,148.
- Dow Jones: Unchanged at 42,761.
Trading Volume & Volatility:
- Total shares traded: 16.5B across U.S. equity exchanges, matching the YTD daily average.
- VIX: +233bps, closing at 17.16.
Key Commodities & Rates:
- Crude Oil: +96bps, closing at $67.11.
- Gold: +25bps, closing at $3,354.
- US 10YR Yield: -3bps, at 4.47%.
- Dollar Index (DXY): -19bps, at 98.99.
- Bitcoin: +52bps, at $109,355.
Market Dynamics:
A rangebound session with slowing leadership under the surface. Notably, the Megacap Tech vs. Non-profitable Tech pair is down for the fifth consecutive day, marking its worst 5-day stretch in over three months (-445bps).
Our Most Rolling Short basket (GSCBMSAL) has surged 16% in the past month, including a +10.8% gain over the last five sessions. This move appears driven by:
1. Resilient macro data (ISM and NFP last week, with CPI due Wednesday).
2. Easing rates backdrop (30YR consolidating below 5%).
3. Hedge fund positioning (June MTD grosses +0.9 to 100th percentile 5-year, nets +1.6 pts to 68th percentile 5-year).
4. Systematic covering (CTAs have net bought ~$30B in U.S. equities over the past month).
Despite these factors, we are not yet in "aggressive squeeze" territory.
Healthcare Conference Highlights:
Today marked the start of our 46th Annual Healthcare Conference (June 9-11). Desk flows were notably elevated, with strong demand from the hedge fund community. Healthcare skew ranked in the 88th percentile on a 52-week lookback. Key standouts included PFE, SMMT, and MTSR. Sentiment in Biotech shows more positive undertones compared to one month ago.
Desk Activity Summary:
- Overall activity level: 6/10.
- Desk finished +6% to buy vs. a 30-day average of +26bps.
- Long-only funds (LOs): $5B net buyers, with broad demand across Tech, Discretionary, Services, Financials, and Healthcare.
- Hedge funds (HFs): Slight net sellers, with demand in Healthcare and Materials offset by supply in macro products and Financials.
Derivatives Market Update:
The market rallied in anticipation of the U.S.-China trade meetings on Monday. Volatility (vol) was choppy, and skew flattened slightly amid the rally. Flows were muted at the start of the week, with notable activity including:
- Significant upside buying in GLD.
- Short-dated VIX downside purchased ahead of next week's expiry.
- Increased interest in retail upside as investors hedge against potential short squeezes.
Key Focus for the Week:
- U.S.-China trade meetings on Monday.
- CPI data release on Wednesday.
- The straddle for the remainder of the week closed at ~1.30%.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!