Aussie Rally Continues

The Australian Dollar is receiving a fresh boost today on the back of the latest RBA meeting minutes released overnight. The minutes were somewhat more hawkish than many were expecting. The bank noted that it discussed a potential hike at the meeting though ultimately decided that the case for holding policy steady was stronger. However, looking ahead, the bank stood firmly ready to tighten further if needed and remained cautious over upside inflation risks.

‘Sticky Inflation’ Risks

While the bank signalled the potential for further tightening, the caveat to this was a note of concern over the overall health of the domestic economy. The RBA signalled an expectation that the unemployment rate would likely rise sharply, adding to the squeeze on households. Ultimately, however, the bank’s concern over ‘sticky inflation’ risks proved to be the main point of concern.  

Central Bank Policy Divergence

The bank’s hawkish sentiment creates clear divergence between it and other central banks such as the Fed and the BOJ. With hawkish RBA risks still evident, AUD looks prone to further upside near-term, particularly if incoming inflation data reflects the stickiness the bank is worried about. Additionally, the fall in JPY and USD is helping boost AUD further near-term.

Technical Views

AUDUSD

The rally in AUDUSD has seen the pair breaking out above the bear trend line from YTD highs and above the .6681 level. While above here, and with momentum studies bullish, the focus is on a further push higher towards the .6857 level next. To the downside, .6520 remains key support to watch.