Market Muted Ahead of BOJ

GBPJPY is currently stuck in a holding pattern between the 179.95 and 184.33 levels. GBP has cooled recently on the back of the latest inflation data which showed that CPI fell sharply last month. The data has allayed fears that the BOE will be pressed into taking more aggressive tightening action through the year. While at least one further hike is expected, the market’s more hawkish expectations have been paired back.

BOJ Policy in Focus

Looking at JPY, the main focus continues to be whether the BOJ will stick to its easing stance or change course anytime soon. JPY options implied volatility continues to point to a high degree of uncertainty (or caution) in the market, ahead of the BOJ meeting on Friday. While governor Ueda this week reaffirmed the need for the BOJ to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, traders cite persistent stickiness in CPI as a sign that a forthcoming change might be seen. With this in mind there is plenty of two-way risk into this week’s meeting keeping the prospect of JPY volatility front of mind. Any hawkish signalling will be firmly bearish for GBPJPY while a fresh move higher is likely should the BOJ simply stick to its guns over easing.

Technical Views

GBPJPY

Following the break below the bull channel lows, the market is clinging to support at 179.95 for now. While this holds, the focus remains on a further push higher in line with the broad bullish trend. However, should price slip below there, 172.13 is the next support to note. Notably, we have a sell signal in the Signal Centre today above market at 184, suggesting selling opportunities on any spike higher.


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