US Core PCE Up Next
The key data focus today will be the release of the latest US core PCE index. Given that the indicator is used by the Fed in its main inflation calculation, the data holds the potential to create market volatility. Yesterday, we saw advance Q3 GDP come in below expectations at 6.6% vs 6.7% expected. Today, the market is looking for the monthly reading to come in at 0.3%, down from the prior month’s 0.4% result. If data is confirmed in this region, USD Is likely to stay pressured. The extent to which we USD being sold, however, will depend on the comments made today by Fed chair Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium. Again, even if data surprises to the upside today, the moves will be mainly informed by Powell’s guidance.
Where to Trade US PCE?
USDNOK
The recent test of the 9.1076 level has seen USDNOK fail and reverse firmly, raising the risk of a double top at the level. Price is currently sitting on the sloping neckline of the pattern. With both MACD and RSI turned lower, there are risks of a deeper sell off if price can break the 8.7317 – 8.6822 region, targeting the 8.3947 zone next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.