PCE In Focus
Looking ahead to today’s US session, the key data focus will be the release of US core PCE for January. Given the hawkish shift from the Fed and the run of strong data we’ve seen recently, the market is poised for another strong reading today. With USD currently trading higher on safe haven inflows, a downside surprise today would likely do little to dent the current bullish momentum. However, an upside beat would certainly add further fuel to the fire. The market is looking for an unchanged reading of 0.5%, giving plenty of room for an upside surprise today to help lift USD further.
Where to Trade US Core PCE?
USDJPY
While JPY is drawing plenty of safe haven support given the current geo-political backdrop, in terms of interest rate expectations, market sentiment still favours a stronger USD. With this in mind, an upside beat on today’s data might help lift USDJPY with 116.07 the level to watch. A break here will target the 117.02 level initially. On the other hand, if data does surprise to the downside today, depending on the scale of the miss, we could see a dip below the 114.70 support and bull channel low.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.