GS chart of the day :: negativity
FICC and Equities
bottom line ... if you're feeling bearish, you're in line with the consensus ... that doesn't necessarily mean you're incorrect, but you are with the majority
1/ the AAII survey has been conducted weekly since 1987
2/ investors can be classified as bullish, bearish, or neutral
3/ throughout the entire history of this survey, investors have *never* been this persistently bearish...
for 11 consecutive weeks, over 50% of respondents have expressed a negative outlook on the
market
4/ the previous record was 7 weeks in 1990 ... the maximum in 2008 was 4 ... and in 2022 it was 5
5/ A natural follow-up question is, "if everyone is bearish, who is buying?" ... the (un)natural response is a systematic community that has acquired approximately $100 billion in global equities over the last 10 days
... a significant sell-off will be harder to achieve if everyone is expecting it ... the 4700 - 5700 trading range is often cited (the fear of missing out is evident today as we approach the upper limit) ... despite the substantial rally, sentiment has yet to shift positively (that needs to take place for stocks to begin a sell-off)
... bonus chart, "are we in a recession" google searches are at their second highest point ever (only surpassed by searches during actual recessions
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!