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Hawkish BOE Expectations Driving GBP
After pausing since around late June until the middle of this month, the bull rally looks to be back underway in GBPJPY. Hawkish BOE expectations are underpinning the current drive higher with traders anticipating that the central bank will be forced to hike at least once more this year, potentially more. Recent UK data has highlighted ongoing inflationary risks for the BOE. Wage growth was seen rising to record levels at the last measure while last month’s CPI release showed that core inflation remained unchanged. Against this backdrop, traders judge that the BOE has little option other than to pursue further tightening.
JPY Under Pressure
At the same time, JPY remains pressured via the BOJ’s continued commitment to maintaining an easing stance in the market. The BOJ reaffirmed the need for further easing at the latest BOJ meeting and, while operational tweaks suggest that perhaps a policy shift in on the horizon, that horizon is not deemed to be close enough to warrant a fresh move higher in JPY. One risk that is that while JPY continues to weaken, the BOJ will be forced to intervene. However, for now, the outlook remains bullish in favour of a fresh leg higher in the pair.
Technical Views
GBPJPY
The rally in GBPJPY has seen the market breaking out above the 183.43 level as the bull channel continues to develop. Bearish divergence in momentum studies suggests near-term correction risks. However, while the 179.95 level and bull channel lows hold, the focus remains on further upside. Notably, we have a bullish signal in the Signal Centre today from 185.50 targeting 187.30 initially.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.