FX Options Insights
FX option implied volatility remains heavily subdued across all currency pairs and maturity dates, reflecting steady risk appetite and a lack of realised spot volatility.
EUR/USD exemplifies the broader FX environment, trading within tight ranges near significant 1.0750-1.0800 option strikes set to expire on Thursday and Friday. Its implied volatility, like that of other major currency pairs, has now nearly erased the mid-February to early March spikes to medium-term highs. Additionally, EUR/USD options have experienced robust selling of low-delta butterfly spreads across all maturities, a common occurrence in low-volatility conditions. Notably, sub-1-month expiry risk reversals are not currently pricing in any directional risk premium.
GBP/USD options showed a slight uptick in volatility ahead of Wednesday's UK inflation data and spring statement, but the subsequent realised volatility was minimal. The entire 1-12 month expiry curve has retreated to recent lows, with the 1-month implied volatility dropping to 6.85 from 8.6 in early March.
One-week options expiring on April 2 coincide with the U.S. trade tariff announcements, but the muted gains in implied volatility suggest the market may be underestimating the potential for realised volatility. Month-end and quarter-end flows are favouring the USD, particularly against the EUR, but also more broadly, as indicated by bank models.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!