FX options Insights
The implied volatility of FX options has decreased from the peaks seen earlier in the week, as improved market sentiment has reduced actual volatility and bolstered the USD. Despite this, volatility risk premiums remain considerably higher than pre-tariff changes in late March, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and the potential for renewed market volatility. As the weekend approaches, traders are cautious about heavily shorting options due to the risk of weekend news triggering volatility at the start of next week's trading, similar to the post-Easter market reaction.
Trade patterns reveal consistent demand for hedging against a continued EUR/USD upward trend. Reverse-knock-out EUR calls have become a popular, cost-effective strategy, with trigger levels set near 1.2000. Additionally, there is notable interest in 9-month expiry EUR calls at the 1.2500 strike, intended to reinforce this week's EUR/USD direction, paired with 4-6-month expiry EUR puts at 1.1300 to reduce costs.
Should the EUR/USD experience further declines next week, significant strike expirations could offer stronger technical support in the mid-low 1.12's range. Meanwhile, USD/JPY options are favoring JPY calls with 3-6-month maturities and strikes below 140.00 as a hedge against a potential return to the downtrend. The Bank of Japan's policy decision and outlook report are scheduled for Thursday, yet there has been little FX volatility risk premium or demand so far. Month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows are expected to assist the USD in overcoming challenges.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!