FX Options Insights
The FX option implied volatility has generally remained heavy after retracing its early March gains to reach new medium-term highs. On Tuesday, there was some mild demand for shorter dated expiry options as EUR/USD and GBP/USD hit new cycle highs, but this was insufficient to suggest an imminent FX breakout. The benchmark 1-month expiry EUR/USD implied volatility tested 8.0 from 7.75 but failed to sustain those gains as EUR/USD fell back to the significant 1.0900 expiry level, which is just below the key technical resistance area near 1.1000 option barriers. It's worth noting that 1-month implied volatility rallied from 7.8 to 9.2 in early March. One-month risk reversals remain close to neutral after losing their gains, which reached new 3-year highs for topside strikes in early March.
At the same time, USD/JPY implied volatility has also remained at low levels, standing at 1-month 10.1 from a 12.4 high in early March. During this period, risk reversals have notably reduced their downside premium relative to upside strikes. The overnight expiry accounted for Wednesday's Bank of Japan policy decision from Tuesday, but the lack of added implied volatility for related options underscores the widely anticipated absence of changes to the existing policy. The recent setbacks in implied volatility have brought sub 1-month expiry AUD/USD levels into a more attractive reward-to-risk ratio when compared to past realised volatility metrics.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!