FX Options Insights
Expectations for negotiated reductions in US trade tariffs are offering some relief to markets, helping to lower both implied and realized foreign exchange volatility. The decline in implied volatility from last Friday’s long-term peaks has benefited from profit-taking and position adjustments ahead of the upcoming long Easter weekend, attracting dip buyers.
Compared to the levels before the tariff announcements in late March, broader implied volatility remains elevated. This suggests a new, heightened environment of realized volatility due to uncertainties related to tariffs and negotiations, as well as the impact on investor confidence in the United States.
Alongside the recent depreciation of the USD, there has been an increase in demand and premiums for USD put options, which allow holders to sell the USD at a predetermined rate in the future. This trend is highlighted by risk reversal contracts that reached 5-year highs against the EUR, GBP, and JPY last Friday, staying well above their recent lows.
European corporate demand is reportedly supporting EUR calls/USD puts in options with longer expiration dates, while other option users are closing short positions up to EUR/USD 1.2000. USD put RKO options are gaining popularity as a cost-effective alternative to standard vanilla USD puts.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!