FX Options Insights
Risk aversion continues to play a significant role in shaping market dynamics, stabilizing the USD's decline on Friday. Meanwhile, FX implied volatility is on the rise, particularly in currencies heavily tied to risk sentiment.
The AUD/USD pair saw the most notable increase in implied volatility, with the 1-month expiry jumping from 10.6 to 13.0—the highest level since March 2023. This spike followed a sharp breach of critical support levels at 0.6171 and 0.6089, driving the pair to lows not witnessed since 2020.
For USD/JPY, the 1-month expiry climbed by another 1.0, reaching 13.5—the highest since October. This shift coincided with 1-month risk reversals for JPY calls over puts hitting new highs of 2.0, the strongest since September. Traders have increasingly opted for JPY call options with strikes as low as 139.00, focusing on sub-1-month expiries.
EUR/USD risk reversals hit their highest levels since 2020 on Thursday for EUR calls over puts but experienced a pullback on Friday due to profit-taking, a modest USD recovery, and position adjustments. Despite this, implied volatility continued its upward trend, touching fresh 2-year highs, with the 1-month expiry briefly reaching 10.5.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!