Dollar Down on Monday
The US Dollar has come under heavy selling pressure at the start of the week as growing uncertainty around deteriorating trade news takes centre stage on Monday. The ongoing legal battle between Trump and the US ICT, following the court ruling against Trump’s tariffs, a breakdown in talks between the US and Chin and now threats of fresh tariff increases from Trump, have combined to spook markets on Monday with risk sentiment rapidly weakening. A rise in safe-havens such as gold and JPY mean USD has been dumped across the board today.
US Data Due
Looking ahead this week, along with trade-related updates, the big focus will be on the slew of US labour market data scheduled. The JOLTS job openings number, ADP employment and headline NFP data, are all due this week and likely to be highly market moving if we see any downside surprises, given the current weakness in USD.
NFP Expectations
Focus on the headline NFP print on Friday, the market is looking for a softer number at 130k, down from 177k prior. If confirmed, this drop should keep pressure on the Dollar, particularly given the backdrop of renewed trade-war uncertainty. Indeed, if we see any downside surprise this should amplify the selling in USD while an upside surprise on Friday could muddy the near-term outlook, leading to a short-covering rally end of week.
Technical Views
DXY
The failure at the 100.38 level and latest test of the bear channel highs has seen the market failing and turning lower again. Price is now testing the rising trend line from YTD lows which, if broken, turns focus to a fresh test of those YTD lows around 97.90.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.