US/China Optimism
The US Dollar is trading on a softer basis ahead of the all-important US labour market reports later today. The greenback has seen better demand this week, linked to optimism around a potential de-escalation of the US/China trade war. Indeed, the bullish sentiment around this issue has helped USD remain bid this week despite a set of weaker-than-forecast data on Tuesday. The ADP employment figure, core PCE and adv Q1 GDP all came in below estimates. However, Fed easing expectations were left little changed as traders instead focused on the trade story. The question now is whether USD will be able to shrug off another data blow if we see fresh weakness in today’s indicators.
Today’s Forecasts
On the numbers front, the market is looking for the headline NFP reading to print 133k down from 228k prior with both the unemployment rate and wage growth expected unchanged at 4.2% and 0.3% respectively. If confirmed at these levels, USD reaction is likely to be muted given the resilience we’ve seen to worse data earlier in the week. However, if we see any undershooting today, particularly on the headline NFP reading, this is likely to fuel some USD downside ahead of the weekend as economic fears take hold again.
Technical Views
DXY
The rally in DXY has stalled for now into the 100.38 level. With price still framed by the bear channel, risks of a further push lower are seen while this level holds. Above here, 101.91 and the bear channel top will be the next resistance to watch.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.