USD Bounces Off Lows

The US Dollar is bouncing off the lows today, offering some hope that the recent sell-off might be coming to an end. The DXY has suffered an almost 4% correction from YTD highs amidst a fluctuating outlook around US trade-war risks, the prospect of an end to the Russia-Ukraine war and the rise of safe-haven demand for gold and JPY.

Tariffs in Focus

While downside risks remain, a more hawkish Fed backdrop and the prospect of renewed US tariff action, could offer the greenback some support near-term. With Canadian and Mexican tariffs back in focus this week ahead of the upcoming deadline, the risk of hawkish comments from Trump could fuel some fresh upside in the Dollar.  

Data & Fed Speak on Watch

On the data front, we have a few key items to keep an eye on this week for USD. Consumer confidence tomorrow will be closely watched ahead of preliminary GDP, durable goods and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday. Finally, on Friday we have the latest core PCE data which will be the headline reading for the week. Alongside these releases we also have a slew of Fed commentary over the week, creating plenty of potential for volatility. With the market having recently pushed out its Fed easing expectations, any further hawkishness this week should help underpin USD.

Technical Views

DXY

The sell off in the Dollar has seen the market breaking down below the 107.24 level with price now testing support at 105.97. With momentum studies bearish, downside risks remain and 104.59 will be the next support to watch if we break lower. Meanwhile, should we recover back above 107.24, 109.35 will be the bigger target for bulls.