Daily Market Outlook, September 27, 2024
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
"China’s Golden Week”
On Friday, Asian stock markets are primarily trading higher, as traders continue to place bets on the US Federal Reserve's potential for further interest rate reductions and the Chinese government's potential for additional stimulus measures to stimulate growth in the world's second largest economy. This is in line with the generally positive signals from Wall Street overnight.
It appears that the powers that be in China are finally acknowledging the economic realities of a floundeering economy and is taking the necessary steps to satisfy market expectations of stimulus support, rate cuts, RRR cuts, measures to support the stock markets, and additional fiscal support are now on the table. Deflated Chinese shares are currently on course for their most successful week since 2008, with blue-chips rising on Friday and projected to achieve a 15% weekly advance. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is on the brink of its most significant weekly increase since 1998, with a projected increase of nearly 13%. There was a positive week for nearly every market that is associated with China. For the week, an index of mainland Chinese property equities experienced a 20% increase. Iron ore prices rebounded above $100 per metric tonne, copper surpassed the critical $10,000 per tonne threshold, gold set a new record, and silver reached its highest level in 12 years. The rally's duration remains uncertain. Investors have been repeatedly deceived by China's A-share market, which has not increased since 2007, despite the S&P 500's nearly 300% increase. After today, the Chinese markets will be suspended for a week-long public holiday. Investors may experience a change of heart if China's cautious consumers fail to increase their spending in order to re-establish economic growth.
Although the week is nearing its conclusion, there are still a few additional events that investors should monitor. The leadership contest being conducted by Japan's ruling party is anticipated to be one of the most unpredictable in decades. The yen is currently experiencing volatility, as it reached a three-week low of 145.56 per dollar on Friday. One of the frontrunners is Sanae Takaichi, the minister of economic security, who has criticised the Bank of Japan for raising rates prematurely. However, Shigeru Ishiba has won Japan's ruling party leadership election, to become the nation's next Prime Minister. Ishiba is seen as the continuity candidate, favouring economic normalisation, as such, the Yen has seen immediate strength trading back on a 143 handle as Nikkei futures weaken in response to the result.
Stateside the data highlight The Federal Reserve's preferable inflation indicator is the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. PCE inflation projected rise 0.1% m/m in August, lowering the y/y rate to 2.3%, a new low. Despite a little unhelpful base effect, core prices could grow 0.2% from July to 2.7% y/y, up from 2.6% last time. Despite services persistence, core prices are still within sniffing distance of the Fed's goal level. That should satisfy the FOMC. Spending is more unclear. We have seen a softening of the traditionally tight labour market, and surveys have been gloomier. Although underlying expenditure has not been affected, employment is still increasing and inflation is decreasing, enhancing real pay growth. Savings rates have increased along with annual GDP adjustments. That blend can last with substantial productivity increases. Households are in a sweet spot where spending can be sustained without dipping into savings, personal income is predicted to climb (median +0.4% m/m) and spending up to 0.3%.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
China Cuts Rate, Frees Bank Cash To Spur Growth
China’s Industrial Profits Plunge At Fastest Pace
Australia Treasurer: China Stimulus To Aid Economy
RBA’s Hawkish Path Puts Bullock In Spotlight
Fed’s Cook Supported Half-Point Rate Cut
Yellen: Economy ‘Soft Landing’ Path, Rates To Drop
UK Gilt Investors Warn Chancellor On Spending Plans
Intel, US Push To Finalise $8.5B Chip Deal
Amazon Exceeds $1.8B Goal For Prime Video
Alphabet To Invest $3.3B In South Carolina Data Centers
BNY Approved By SEC For Crypto Custody
Costco Misses Estimates, Soft Consumer Spending
NHC: Helene Threatens Florida With Dangerous Winds
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
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FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
EUR/USD: 1.1100 (1.5BLN), 1.1110-20 (920M), 1.1145-50 (1.7BLN)
1.1160-65 (900M), 1.1180-90 (1.1BLN), 1.1200 (665M), 1.1250 (1.1BLN)
USD/CHF: 0.8475 (759M), 0.8550 (304M)
EUR/CHF: 0.9425 (330M), 0.9475 (305M), 0.9495-0.9500 (472M)
EUR/SEK: 11.3400 (280M)
USD/CAD: 1.3460 (670M), 1.3500 (1.2BLN), 1.3575 (750M)1.3600 (503M)
GBP/USD: 1.3220 (528M), 1.3370 (824M)
AUD/USD: .6900 (292M), 0.6925 (706M)
AUD/NZD: 1.0850 (323M), 1.0975 (320M)
USD/JPY: 144.80 (660M), 145.00 (536M), 145.50 (456M)
146.00 (581M), 147.00 (680M)
CFTC Data As Of 20/9/24
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 36,522 contracts to 1,021,562
Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 108,938 contracts to 362,306
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 71,921 contracts to 1,094,026
Euro net long position is 69,646 contracts
Japanese yen net long position is 56,840 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -17108 contracts
British pound net long position is 62,979 contracts
Bitcoin net short position is -973 contracts
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5735
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5720 opens 5680
Primary support 5575
Primary objective 5820
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.1180
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 1.1120 opens 1.10
Primary support 1.1130
Primary objective 1.1250
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3230
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 1.32 opens 1.3140
Primary support is 1.32
Primary objective 1.36
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 142.50
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 142 opens 140.50
Primary resistance 146
Primary objective is 146 - TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMERGING
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2645
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2600 opens 2550
Primary support 2550
Primary objective is 2680 - TARGET HIT NEW PATTERN EMRGING
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 60000
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 54000 opens 50000
Primary support is 500000
Primary objective is 700000
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!