Daily Market Outlook, September 16, 2024
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
"Secret Service Averts Second Assassination Attempt On Trump”
On Sunday, the Secret Service prevented what the FBI described as an apparent assassination attempt against Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump while he was golfing on his course in West Palm Beach, Florida. Trump was unharmed. According to law enforcement officials, a gunman was observed in shrubbery near the property line of the golf course by several Secret Service agents, and he was subsequently shot by the agents.
Markets wise, following the broadly positive signals from global markets on Friday, Asian stock markets are trading mixed on Monday, with some of the region's key markets closed. Over the weekend, China's economic data was disappointing, as industrial output growth declined to a five-month low in August and retail sales and new home prices continued to decline. If China is to attain its 2024 growth objective of approximately 5%, the data supports the need for further economic stimulus by the year's end. Traders are remaining cautious ahead of central bank meetings in the U.S., Japan, and the U.K. later in the week. Market sentiment is being assisted by optimism regarding the likelihood of a minimum 25 basis point reduction in the U.S. interest rate.
It is widely anticipated that the U.S. Federal Reserve will commence its long-awaited easing cycle with a 25 basis point reduction to a 5.00%-5.25% range at its policy meeting on September 17-18. This outcome is slightly more probable, but only marginally. A 25 basis point reduction on Wednesday is presently priced at approximately 55% by LSEG. The Fed's economic projections, statement, and press conference will have an impact on the market. Additionally, the Philly Fed Index, industrial production, housing data, weekly jobless claims, and retail sales are all scheduled for release. President Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve delivers a speech on Friday.
On Thursday, it is anticipated that the Bank of England will maintain rates at 5.00%. Markets anticipate a 69% likelihood of no change this month, a rate of -30 basis points in November, and a rate of -51 basis points by December. Focus will be placed on the press conference and monetary policy summary. Expectations may be altered by the release of CPI and PPI data by the United Kingdom on Wednesday. Retail sales are scheduled for release on Friday.
Monday is a holiday in Japan; however, the country will resume a hectic week with the submission of machinery orders, trade, and CPI data, followed by a Bank of Japan policy decision on Friday. It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will maintain rates at 0.25%, with an additional increase anticipated in 2024. Expectations will be significantly influenced by the press conference.
The Eurozone's data is restricted to the final August HICP, the German ZEW survey, and the preliminary September consumer confidence. However, a number of European Central Bank officials, including President Christine Lagarde, are scheduled to deliver speeches.
Overnight Newswire Updates of Note
China’s Slowdown Tests Xi’s Tolerance For Growth Miss
BoE Rate Cut Helps Boost UK Housing Market
ECB’s Wunsch: Rates Should Fall, But Warns on Inflation
US Fed Expected To Announce Its First Interest Rate Cut
Trump Safe After Gunshots Reported Near Florida Golf Club
Jay Powell’s Big Week
UK Reeves: Spending Cuts Would Damage ‘Economy’
(Sourced from reliable financial news outlets)
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FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)
USD/JPY: 119.00 ($880m), 130.00 ($850m), 153.75 ($766m)
EUR/USD: 1.1145 (EU2.15b), 1.0600 (EU2.02b), 0.9400 (EU1.78b)
GBP/USD: 1.3200 (GBP1.41b), 1.3000 (GBP1.32b), 1.3145 (GBP728.1m)
AUD/USD: 0.6750 (AUD456.5m), 0.6620 (AUD378.1m), 0.7750 (AUD354.9m)
USD/CAD: 1.3650 ($1.02b)
EUR/GBP: 0.8225 (EU340m)
USD/BRL: 5.7500 ($466.5m), 5.2500 ($309.6m)
CFTC Data As Of 13/9/24
Euro net long position is 81,433 contracts
Japanese Yen net long position is 55,770 contracts
Swiss Franc posts net short position of -21,304 contracts
British Pound net long position is 90,288 contracts
Equity fund managers cut S&P 500 CME net long position by 6,179 contracts to 985,040
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 18,194 contracts to 253,368
Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 19,278 contracts to 1,022,105
Technical & Trade Views
SP500 Bullish Above Bearish Below 5565
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 5550 opens 5550
Primary support 5500
Primary objective is 5325
EURUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.1140
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 1.09 opens 1.0850
Primary resistance 1.1150
Primary objective 1.0950
GBPUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 1.3190
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 1.3050 opens 1.2960
Primary support is 1.2730
Primary objective 1.3390
USDJPY Bullish Above Bearish Below 141
Daily VWAP bearish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Above 141 opens 143.70
Primary resistance e143.70
Primary objective is 138.50
XAUUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 2530
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bullish
Below 2500 opens 2460
Primary support 2430
Primary objective is 2598
BTCUSD Bullish Above Bearish Below 58000
Daily VWAP bullish
Weekly VWAP bearish
Below 54000 opens 50000
Primary support is 500000
Primary objective is 700000
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!