Daily Market Outlook, March 10, 2021
Asian equity markets are mostly higher this morning, although the majority of moves are small. Markets continue to wait on the US Congressional vote on the Biden fiscal package, which is expected today. Ahead of that, the OECD yesterday forecast that it could boost US GDP by more than 3% this year and overall global GDP by 1%. China’s producer price index was up 1.7% from a year ago in February, its highest rate since November 2018 but consumer prices slipped 0.2% from a year ago.
Latest reports suggest that nearly 22.6 million people have now received their first Covid-19 vaccination in the UK. However officials said we are still not “out of the woods” and that it will not be possible to eliminate all Covid infections and fatalities.
Today’s data calendar is again light with nothing of note in the UK. In the Eurozone, French industrial production is expected to have risen in January. Data for other parts of the region have so far been mixed. Germany posted a big decline and Spain a smaller fall but Italy saw a larger than forecast increase. The estimate for the Eurozone as a whole will be released on Friday.
Today’s US CPI release will be watched with particular interest by markets considering that concerns about a quicker than expected rebound in inflation continue to weigh on the US bond market. The CPI is not the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, that is the consumer expenditure deflator. However, as the February reading for that will not be released until the 26th March, the CPI will as always be seen as a timelier reading of inflationary pressures. Expect it to show a rise in annual ‘headline’ inflation to 1.6% from 1.4% in January but the ‘core’ measure is forecast to hold at 1.4%. Overall that would be an indication that inflation is still well below the Fed’s 2.0% target.
The Bank of Canada will give its latest policy update today. Policy is expected to be left unchanged. However, the accompanying statement is likely to acknowledge that the economy has been stronger than expected, Moreover, further upward surprises could be forthcoming as the domestic environment improves and Canada receives a further boost from its close links with a strengthening US economy. Nevertheless, the BoC will probably continue to signal for now that monetary policy is unlikely to be tightened before 2023.
G10 FX Options Expiries for 10AM New York Cut
EUR/USD: 1.1950 (669M), 1.2000-10 (1.3BLN)
AUD/USD: 0.7600-05 (789M), 0.7720-25 (887M), 0.7750-55 (1.1BLN)
USD/JPY: Nothing closer than 106.80-90(610M), 107.25-30 (631M) Wed's
Larger Option Pipeline
EUR/USD: Mar11 $1.1800(E1.2bln), $1.1900-15(E1.5bln); Mar12 $1.1995-1.2000(E2.1bln), $1.2100-10(E1.2mln)
USD/JPY: Mar11 Y107.75($1.7bln); Mar12 Y105.95-106.00($2.7bln), Y108.30-35($1.8bln)
AUD/USD: Mar11 $0.7600(A$1.7bln), $0.8000(A$1.8bln)
AUD/NZD: Mar11 N$1.0730(A$1.96bln-NZD puts); Mar18 N$1.0770-75(A$1.3bln-AUD puts)
USD/MXN: Mar12 Mxn20.30($1.1bln)
Technical & Trade Views
EURUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.20 bearish below
EURUSD From a technical and trading perspective, the closing breach of 1.21 and the descending trendline is a bullish development opening a retest of prior highs at 1.2350, only a move back through 1.20 would suggest further downside opening a potential test of 1.17 yearly pivot...UPDATE responsive buying from the equality objective at 1.1850, through yesterday's highs opens pivotal 1.20 test
Flow reports suggest congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through the 1.1920 area and weak stops possibly setting up a small short squeeze through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear.
GBPUSD Bias: Bullish above 1.3750 targeting 1.44
GBPUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as 1.40 now acts as support bulls will target a test of 1.44 as the next upside objective. Below 1.40 opens a retest of 1.3750 pivotal trend support.
Flow reports suggest topside offers weak back through the 1.3900 level and light stops limited at best before running into light offers around the 1.3950 area and then increasing resistance through to the 1.4000 before slightly stronger stops appear and the market opens to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again
USDJPY Bias: Bullish above 107.30 targeting 109.85
USDJPY From a technical and trading perspective, as 104.50 supports there is potential for a further squeeze higher to test offers towards 107. A loss of 103.50 would negate further upside and suggest a resumption of trend. Target achieved, look for a profit taking pause to develop above 108.60, as 107.30 support bulls will target a test of 109.85 next
Flow reports suggest topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week
AUDUSD Bias: Bullish above .7560 bullish targeting .8000
AUDUSD From a technical and trading perspective, as the major trendline support at .7560 now acts as support, look for target wave 5 upside objective towards .8000. A closing breach of .7730 of the internal descending trendline will encourage the bullish thesis.
Flow reports suggest topside offers through the 0.7700-20 area with limited potential for stops however, the offers don’t really look that strong until the 0.7800-20 areas with weak stops likely beyond that area to open up the potential for another higher run, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 65% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!