Daily Market Outlook, June 17, 2024

Munnelly’s Macro Minute…

“Central Bank Speakers On Deck BoE On Hold Ahead UK Elections ”

The U.S. has a busy schedule, as the dust settles on theJune FOMC meeting, with many Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak. May retail sales and industrial production lead,followed by building permits, housing starts, the Philly FedBusiness Index, and flash S&P Global June PMIs. Fed speakers include Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin,Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Philadelphia President Patrick Harker,Dallas President Lorie Logan, St Louis President AlbertoMusalem, and Chicago President Austan Goolsbee.

The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is not expected to move interest rates. LSEG's prices around a 90%chance of no change in the current 5.25% rate, but economists expect an August cut. The BoE is likely to provide a cautiousoutlook and remain data-driven. The UK data highlights are MayCPI, PPI and retail sales, and flash June PMIs.

China's monthly activity data for May on Monday are likely to reveal an uneven economic recovery. Industrial output is forecast to slow to 6.4% from 6.7% in April, retail sales to pick up to 3% from 2.3%, and urban investment is seen steady.Unemployment and house prices will also be watched. The People's Bank of China is likely to hold its one-year medium-term lending facility rate at 2.50% on Monday, continuing to prioritise currency stability despite growing calls for older stimulus measures to combat deflationary pressures and spur domestic demand.

China is also likely to leave its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively onThursday.

The euro zone has a low-key week with final May HICP, flashJune consumer confidence and PMIs and German ZEW economic sentiment due.

Japan has machinery orders, trade, nationwide CPI and flashPMIs scheduled.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate at 4.35%

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

China Leaves Key Rate Unchanged On Currency Pressure, Liquidity
China Factory Output Cools, Retail Spending Beats Forecasts
China Home-Price Slump Accelerates Despite More Stimulus
RBA Seen Holding Key Rate At 12-Year High As Inflation Stays Hot
Fed’s Kashkari: Fed Well-Placed to Take Its Time Ahead of Rate Cut
ECB In No Rush To Discuss French Bond Rescue, Sources Say
Scholz Demands More Team Spirit As Budget Showdown Looms
Australian Dollar Extends Decline Following Mixed China’s Economic Data
Oil Steadies After Weekly Gain As Traders Weigh Mixed China Data

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

EUR/USD: 1.0665-75 (1.75BLN), 1.0680-85 (1.34BLN)
1.0695-00 (583M), 1.0745-50 (1.32BLN
USD/JPY: 155.60 (400M), 156.50-75 (928M), 157.00 (517M)
157.50 (771M), 158.00 (833M)
USD/CHF: 0.8970 (482M), 0.9000 (400M)
GBP/USD: 1.2675 (353M), EUR/GBP: 0.8445-50 (810M)
AUD/USD: 0.6595-00 (1.09BLN), 0.6615 (848M), 0.6675 (404M)
0.6700 (319M). AUD/NZD: 1.0700 (275M)
USD/CAD: 1.3650 (728M), 1.3700 (520M), 1.3750-55 (597M)
1.3765-70 (978M), 1.3780 (790M)

CFTC Data As Of 14/06/24

Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 20,612 contracts to 352,937
Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 13,149 contracts to 967,970
Euro net long position is 43,644 contracts
Japanese yen net short position is 138,579 contracts
British pound net long position is 52,121 contracts
Swiss franc posts net short position of -42,863
Bitcoin net short position is -1,138 contracts