Daily Market Outlook, February 21, 2024

Munnelly’s Market Minute…

“Markets On Nvidia Earnings Watch”

This morning, Asian stock markets are showing a varied performance, with Chinese indices gaining while most others are experiencing declines. A Chinese media source reported that a key interest rate was kept unchanged this week due to concerns about its impact on the Yuan. In the meantime, Japan reported a smaller-than-expected trade deficit in January, thanks to strong exports, especially in the automobile sector, and a decrease in imports.

Today's key events include this morning's publication of UK public finance data for January, which showed a net borrowing of -£17.6bn. This amount is significantly higher than last year's figure, indicating a potential surplus due to self-assessment receipts. The Office of Budget Responsibility has stressed the importance of January data in evaluating the fiscal deficit, which could impact expectations for tax cuts in the upcoming budget. Furthermore, the CBI Industrial Trends survey for February provides insights into the factory sector, complementing tomorrow's purchasing manager’s survey. The previous month's survey revealed ongoing declines in orders, raising concerns about activity levels and potential price pressures from shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. A small increase is expected in the European Commission's consumer confidence measure for February, although it remains below late 2023 levels, likely reflecting consumer uncertainty regarding ECB interest rate cuts. Bank of England policymaker Dhingra, known for her cautious approach, is set to speak today after expressing concerns about downside growth risks during a recent testimony to a Parliamentary Committee.

Later, the minutes of the late January US Federal Reserve policy meeting will be made public. Despite mixed economic data pushing back expectations for an interest rate cut, investors are eager for insights into the Fed's position and potential reasons for rate reductions. However, markets are eagerly anticipating what could be the most significant earnings report in a long time, as Nvidia, the leading company in the AI industry, is expected to announce another exceptional quarter. Despite the stock's remarkable rise over the past year and a half due to the AI craze, investors may feel let down if the chipmaker is unable to sustain its impressive growth. Nvidia is expected to triple quarterly revenue to around $20 billion, with a focus on its forecast and China. Investors are concerned about whether its significant stock increase has reached its peak. The company's stock has risen 40% this year and 239% in 2023. Nvidia options indicate a potential 11% swing after earnings, which may impact global markets and record peaks in Europe and Japan

Overnight Newswire Updates of Note

Fed Set To Keep Shrinking B/S While Liquidity Drain Continues
US House Republicans Privately Expect Government Shutdown
US To Announce ‘Major’ Sanctions Friday Over Navalny Death
China Restricts Quant Fund Lingjun In Effort To Boost Markets
Japan Tankan Manufacturers' Gloom Rises, Adds Growth Pains
Japanese Export Growth Beats Bets, Keeping BoJ Options Open
Australia’s Wage Growth Quickens Further RBA’s Forecast Peak
Houthis Fire At Ship With Humanitarian Aid To Yemen, US Says
Hunt Weighs Plans To Spur Pension Funds To Invest In UK Assets
Bezos Finishes 50 Million Amazon Stock Sale Netting $8.5 Billion
HSBC’s Earnings Sink On $3 Billion Impairment On Chinese Bank

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut

(1BLN+ represent larger expiries, more magnetic when trading within daily ATR)

EUR/USD: 1.0780 (EU1.59b), 1.0778 (EU872.2m), 1.0815 (EU732m)
USD/JPY: 145.00 ($1.68b), 150.00 ($1.26b), 147.50 ($1.24b)
USD/CNY: 7.5000 ($399.8m), 7.2500 ($336.4m)
USD/CAD: 1.3400 ($500m), 1.3600 ($312.5m), 1.3505 ($308m)
NZD/USD: 0.6060 (NZD700m), 0.6100 (NZD303.4m)
USD/MXN: 16.95 ($300m)

CFTC Data As Of 13/02/24

British Pound net long position is 50,472 contracts.
Japanese Yen net short position is -111,536 contracts.
Bitcoin net short position is -1,921 contracts.
Swiss Franc posts net short position of -6,014 contracts.
Japanese Yen net short position is -111,536 contracts.
Equity Fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 17.391 contracts to 930,253.
Equity fund speculators trim S&P 500 CME net short position by 39.481 contracts to 384.474.