Daily Market Outlook, August 26, 2026

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group


Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Stocks Rise As Oil Slips And Nvidia Looms


Global equity markets rebounded on Wednesday as semiconductor heavyweights advanced ahead of Nvidia’s crucial earnings release, with traders positioning for another blockbuster performance from the AI market anchor. Sentiment was further bolstered by a sharp drop in energy prices and a relief rally across sovereign debt markets. MSCI’s Asia Pacific index climbed 1%, spearheaded by gains in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. US equity-index futures erased early losses to trade flat-to-higher, while European bourses pointed to modest gains.


The immediate macro catalyst was a steep pullback in crude. Brent dropped 2.6% to near $86.30/bbl—extending its weekly decline past 8%—on reports that Iran and Oman are discussing an interim framework to secure commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This de-escalation in energy risk provided much-needed relief to global rate markets: US 10-year Treasury yields extended their drop by 7 bps, while Japanese and New Zealand government bonds also advanced. Australian debt was a notable outlier, falling after a hot local CPI print reignited rate-hike expectations from the RBA.


Cross-asset price action saw Gold ease 0.4% to $4,640/oz alongside softer inflation pressures, while Bitcoin steadied near $79,000. In foreign exchange, the Canadian Dollar weakened after Prime Minister Carney matched newly imposed US tariffs with dollar-for-dollar retaliatory duties while rolling out emergency support for affected domestic industries. With Washington actively weighing further trade measures against Ottawa, the North American trade dispute remains a key tail risk for CAD pairs.


Macro economic data presented a mixed landscape. In the US, the Conference Board’s August consumer confidence index slipped to 89.4, though the underlying details showed a sharp bounce in current conditions (up to 121.4) and a strengthening labor market differential (+7.5 pts). However, the forward-looking expectations component sank to 68.2—its lowest level since January—driven by persistent consumer anxiety over energy costs, trade conflict, and food inflation. Near-term inflation expectations rose to 5.8%, compounding political pressure on the administration as midterm polling tightens.


Conversely, Europe offered a genuine positive surprise via Germany’s August Ifo survey. The headline business climate index surged to 88.8 (vs. 87.2 expected), breaching pre-Iran-war levels for the first time. Accompanied by an upward revision to German Q2 GDP (+0.3% q/q), the data suggests that state infrastructure spending is finally trickling into the real economy. Nevertheless, the German recovery remains uneven: manufacturing stands at a four-year high (54.1), but services remain in contraction (48.5) as high electricity costs continue to delay broader corporate capital expenditure.


Macro to Micro: Lower oil prices and falling bond yields have provided equities with a temporary runway, but market direction for the remainder of the week rests entirely on Nvidia’s results. A solid beat could reignite the global AI rotation, but macro desks remain vigilant: trade frictions, sticky consumer inflation expectations, and structural energy costs mean central bank policy paths remain tightly constrained.

Overnight Headlines

  • Iran, Oman Push Talks For ‘Interim’ Reopening Of Hormuz Strait

  • US, Iran Said To Announce Ceasefire In ‘Coming Days’

  • US Shifts From Strikes To Sanctions On Iran, Sec Rubio Tells Allies

  • US Starts Returning Staff To MidEast Missions After Iran War Evacuations

  • Australia Inflation Overshoots Estimates, Boosting Rate-Hike Bets

  • Japan Business Service Prices Accelerate, Backing BoJ Hike Case

  • BoK To Weigh Back-To-Back Hike As Growth, Inflation Remain Firm

  • ECB Set For Sept Hike With No Appetite To Signal More, Sources Say

  • Fed’s Barkin Says Rising US Debt Will Lead To Eventual Reckoning

  • US Weighs More Trade Measures Against Canada After Retaliation

  • Bessent’s Bond Intervention Puts US Trsy On Collision Course With Fed

  • Oil Falls On Signs Of Middle East Talks

  • Asian Stocks Hesitant Ahead Of Nvidia Earnings As Oil Slips

  • Copper Climbs From Record-High Close With Supply Still Tight

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

  • EUR/USD

  • 1.1750 (EUR 1.31 bn)

  • 1.1700 (EUR 1.01 bn)

  • 1.1675 (EUR 1.12 bn)

  • USD/JPY

  • 160.00 (US$ 782.68 mn)

  • 159.00 (US$ 996.56 mn)

  • GBP/USD

  • 1.3625 (GBP 600.03 mn)

  • AUD/USD

  • 0.7220 (AUD 360.38 mn)

  • 0.7160 (AUD 487.77 mn)

  • EUR/GBP

  • 0.8600 (EUR 782.01 mn)

  • 0.8500 (EUR 490.33 mn)

CFTC Positions as of 21/7/26

  • Equity fund speculators increase S&P 500 CME net short position by 5,978 contracts to 267,509

  • Equity fund managers raise S&P 500 CME net long position by 10,361 contracts to 952,422

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures net short position by 33,349 contracts to 1,274,105

  • Speculators increase CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures net short position by 31,908 contracts to 946,961

  • Speculators trim CBOT US 2-year Treasury futures net short position by 93,706 contracts to 927,337

  • Speculators increase CBOT US UltraBond Treasury futures net short position by 19,941 contracts to 346,724

  • Speculators increase CBOT US Treasury bonds futures net short position by 39,405 contracts to 219,012

  • Bitcoin net long position is 2,736 contracts

  • Swiss franc posts net short position of -27,278 contracts

  • British pound net short position is -54,573 contracts

  • Euro net short position is -59,088 contracts

  • Japanese yen net short position is -52,893 contracts


Technical & Trade Views


SP500 - 7620 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 7620 Target 7870

  • Below 7580 Target 7490

DXY - 99 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish

  • Above 99.20 Target 99.75

  • Below 99 Target 97.50

EURUSD - 1.16 weekly bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.16 Target 1.18

  • Below 1.1550 Target 1.1475

GBPUSD - 1.3550 weekly  bull/bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 1.3550 Target 1.3690

  • Below 1.35 Target 1.3450

USDJPY - 160 weekly bull bear level 

  • Daily VWAP Bullish>Bearish

  • Weekly VWAP Bearish>Bullish

  • Above 155 Target 160

  • Below 155 Target 152

XAUUSD - 4500 weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 4500 Target 4725

  • Below 4450 Target 4385

BTCUSD - 74k weekly bull bear level

  • Daily VWAP Bullish

  • Weekly VWAP Bullish

  • Above 74k Target 83k

  • Below 73.8k Target 70.8k

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