Fresh US/Iran Attacks

Crude prices are surging higher again midweek amidst troubling reports of fresh attacks between the US and Iran. Crude futures are now up more than 8% this week, quickly heading back to the $100 p/b level as traders nervously eye developments and fear that the ceasefire will collapse and a full return to war will be seen. The US reported that it had launched ‘self-defence’ attacks on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight in response to attempted attacks across the Middle East from Iran. Iran confirmed that it had attacked US airbases and helicopters while two missiles were fired at Kuwait and three at Bahrain. These missiles were intercepted however, drones struck Kuwait international airport casing significant damage and forcing its closure.

Ceasefire At Risk

Naturally, the big fear held by traders is that the ceasefire is disintegrating and a return to war will be seen. With this in mind, crude prices look set to continue higher near-term with news of any further attacks set to amplify buying. Given the precarious nature of the situation it would likely take a significant positive-news shock to help turn oil prices lower again. However, with harsh rhetoric from both sides and no signs of progress sin negotiations, that appears unlikely for now and crude looks prone to upside risks near-term.

Technical Views

Crude

The sell off in crude has stalled with price bouncing sharply off the triangle lows, now back above the 95.06 level. While above here, focus is on a test of the 101.69 level next and the triangle highs above. Momentum studies are turning higher here also, endorsing a further push higher. As such, 95.06 will remain the key pivot near-term.