Can Copper Rebound?

Copper bulls are fighting to drive a recovery rally today with the futures market rising from Thursday’s lows, bouncing off the bull channel support, but still capped by 6.3750 for now. Weakness in the US Dollar is helping with better buying interest today but the turmoil in stock market amidst recent AI investment concerns remains a key threat to demand in copper markets. Copper futures have corrected more than 10% from the summer highs as hawkish Fed expectations and risk market wobbles dented demand.

Chinese Demand

Still, demand in China remains a strong upside driver and with global output down from typical levels as a result of sharply lower Chilean output, there is still a strong case for higher copper prices medium-term. Reduced physical supplies have led to soaring copper premiums as weakened domestic and foreign output struggle to keep up with demand.

AI Concerns

Near-term, focus is likely to stay on the AI story. Given the importance in AI demand expectations to the copper rally this year, the prospect of slower AI business development as a result of the Democrat party taking both houses in the US midterms means that copper will be vulnerable to further downside on any negative headlines or fresh downside in tech markets.

Technical Views

Copper

Copper prices are at a crucial point here having broken down below the 6.3750 level and now testing the bull channel lows. Bulls need to get price quickly back above the 6.3750 level following the bounce off the channel support or risk a channel break towards 6.1090 first and 5.8550 thereafter.