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AUD Falls Following RBA Minutes
The Australian Dollar has come under pressure today on the back of the release of the latest set of RBA meeting minutes. The minutes revealed that while the bank considered hiking rates again this month, ultimately it decided to hold rates steady, citing the “acute financial challenges” facing some domestic households.
Further Tightening Not Ruled Out
On inflation, the RBA noted that recent data was encouraging, showing that inflation was continuing to fall back towards target. Additionally, with the economy now expected to grow more slowly than previously thought, the bank noted that this too should help bring inflation down further. However, the bank didn’t rule out further tightening, noting that risks to the economy were broadly balanced going forward. Furthermore, the bank noted that its central scenario forecast of the economy slowing into the end of the year was based on further tightening. As such, hawkish risks remain over the remainder of the year.
Bearish AUD View
The reaction in AUD suggests the market is focusing on the downside risks for growth as a result of further tightening. With household incomes dwindling and financial conditions getting tighter, consumption looks vulnerable to further weakening in coming months which should keep AUD pressured.
Technical Views
AUDUSD
The sell off in AUDUSD has seen the pair breaking down below the .6681 level and below the .6520 level. With momentum studies bearish, the focus is on further downside while price holds below this level, targeting a move down to .6275 next.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.