Bitcoin Lacking Direction
It’s been a non-eventful week for Bitcoin prices with the futures market stuck in heavy congestion below the $100k mark. Price action has been up and down throughout the week with the market currently sitting just above the weekly opening price. There has been an absence of direct drivers for crypto markets this week with focus falling on developments elsewhere. US inflation and the prospect of Russia-Ukraine peace talks have been the key focus for traders, with one offsetting the other in terms of market impact, adding to the current malaise in Bitcoin.
Trump Trade Fizzles Out
A lack of crypto news from Trump has clearly frustrated bulls though the market continues to find support on any moves lower. The broad view is that at some point Trump will start to make good on the campaign promises he made to the crypto community, at which point the bull trend will resume and BTC will see new highs. However, the risk is that Trump is pushing crypto further down his list of priorities while he tackles big ticket items.
Bearish Risks
The longer we go without any crypto positive news from Trump, the more likely we are to see institutional demand fade and be redeployed elsewhere, leading crypto lower. Additionally, there is a growing risk that Trump doesn’t follow through on those campaign promises and doesn’t pursue a strategic US Bitcoin reserve, which is seen as the main saviour for crypto bulls. If traders get a sense that such a reserve isn’t coming, Bitcoin is vulnerable to a meaningful move lower.
Technical Views
BTC
For now, Bitcoin remains in the lower portion of the 91,750 – 107,855 range. While range support holds and price remains above the broken bear channel, focus is on an eventual push higher and a breakout to 113,690 medium-term. If range support fails, however, focus will turn to 74,655 as the longer-run bear target.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.